Formula AI: Month 1 Review

Finance

11 Jul

Written By Kiki

Introduction

Formula AI is a project I began in June 2025 to experiment with investing using AI as my guide. You can read the previous posts in my series here:

1. Formula AI: Launch of my AI Investing Project

As I reflect on Month 1, I wanted to capture my observations during the month and my feelings on the performance of my investment. Moving into Month 2, I share my portfolio performance, observations, and ideas with ChatGPT to allow it to guide me through the next set of investment decisions.

Month 1 in Review

The first month of a new project for me is typically one of observation. I regularly checked my investment account to keep notice of large price swings, peaks, and troughs of my holdings, and monetary movement. Since I decided to only make transactions once per month, I held back from making decisions based on daily movements. I observed the volatility, as there was a lot of movement throughout the month, with the peak value garnering +0.97% growth, but the largest decline I experienced was -4.78%.

I did get worried as I saw the declines growing steadily, but I was thankful to see that they recovered over time. By the month's end, I was sitting at a loss of 1.73%. Yes, it was annoying to end my first month on a loss; however, as my investment spent most of the month in the red, I'm glad that it recovered from the -4.78% low.

I was sitting with 52.01 EUR in my cash account, and I wanted to take that into Month 2 and do something with it. I also wanted to explore ChatGPT’s observations of the stock movements and see what action it would suggest for Month 2.

What I Asked ChatGPT

I began my consultation with ChatGPT by asking what it needed from me to help guide me for Month 2. It asked for my current portfolio snapshot, any earned income during the month, and what trades I executed. I shared the original costs and current values for each stock. I did not have any additional income (from dividends), nor did I transact any shares. From there, ChatGPT summarised my holdings from each category - Core, Growth, and Speculative - and shared some advice on what to do with each share - hold, review, or action.

It ended with a quote, an action plan, and asked for my reflections in order to tease out my feelings and help me finalise a plan for Month 2.

📣 From Your AI Advisor

"A 1.7% dip in your first month is not a loss — it's tuition. Stay curious, stay calm, and stay invested.

One month tells you the weather. A system tells you the climate."

I brought several questions to ChatGPT:

Can you help me decide what to do with the 52.01 EUR in cash I have?
Should I focus on stock performance, currency influence, or a combination of the two?
Can you suggest trades to perform as I enter Month 2?

As I teased out its responses to these questions, I made several observations. ChatGPT had recommended I keep an eye out for dividends from ARKI, and to consider investing my additional cash in order to benefit from a larger dividend payout. I left ChatGPT behind, and researched the stock's news, but learned there was no distribution to shareholders. When I probed ChatGPT about this, it indicated that the fund is "accumulating", which means that dividends are reinvested into the exchange-traded fund (ETF), and so shareholders gain that benefit indirectly. It was great to see that ChatGPT could explain these concepts further, and so with that, I asked it to provide me with dividend advice for distributed dividends going forward.

To summarise the outcome of my questions, ChatGPT recommended buying new stocks to bolster my existing holdings. It also advised me to consider only the stock performance in local currency, since I intended on holding for the long term. Over the long term, currency fluctuations should average out. Of course, there are other methods to employ to counteract unfavourable currency fluctuations, such as introducing hedging, but for the project, it seemed like overkill. So, I decided to stick with making decisions based on the stock performance. After all, a 10% increase in stock price will quickly erode a 5% decline in currency exchange!

Month 2 Decisions

As I entered Month 2, I was consciously aware that I was still in the early stages of this project. I only had 2 reference points for my portfolio at that time. So, I decided to hold my existing stock, invest my remaining cash, and reassess at the end of Month 2. I followed ChatGPT's guidance and decided to:

Buy - 1x IONQ - $42.2 (+$0.42 fee)
Buy - 1x RGTI - $11.62 (+$0.12 fee)

These stocks are part of my Growth category, so they felt like a good middle ground for my cash investment. As my portfolio allocation had not changed dramatically, I did not perform any rebalancing this month.

The Numbers

As I am holding EUR and USD stocks, I track the FX rates used on each day I transact. These are used in my calculations for conversion to EUR, and in updating my figures and percentage changes. For reference, these rates are:

EUR-USD FX Rate (3rd June): 1.14
EUR-USD FX Rate (1st July): 1.18

These rates showed a 4% decline in USD, which means that a 10% stock price growth in USD only resulted in a 6% overall value growth in EUR.

My portfolio over time is shared below, with the initial investments per stock, last month's values, and this month's values. Percentage changes are also included based on the monthly movement and overall changes since Day 1.

  
      Category
      Ticker
      Initial Investment
      Last Month
      This Month
      % Change (Month)
      % Change (Total)
      This Month - Updated
    

  
      Core
      QUTM
      1,197.60
      1,197.60
      1,187.87
      -0.81%
      -0.81%
      1,187.87
    

      Core
      ARKI
      1,184.09
      1,184.09
      1,244.60
      +5.11%
      +5.11%
      1,244.60
    

      Growth
      IONQ
      581.76
      581.76
      575.32
      -1.11%
      -1.11%
      611.44
    

      Growth
      RGTI
      593.29
      593.29
      533.14
      -10.14%
      -10.14%
      543.09
    

      Speculative
      QBTS
      391.25
      391.25
      338.00
      -13.61%
      -13.61%
      338.00
    

      Cash
      EUR
      52.01
      52.01
      52.01
      0.00%
      0.00%
      5.92
    

      Total
      
      4,000.00
      4,000.00
      3,930.94
      -1.73%
      -1.73%
      3,930.92
    

Notes:

All amounts are in EUR.
"This Month" refers to the values at the end of the month, and "This Month - Updated" refers to values after executing transactions for the next month.
Due to currency exchanges and rounding, there may be minor discrepancies between "This Month" and "This Month - Updated".
Percentage changes indicate overall growth (stock changes and currency changes)

What I’m Watching Next

As I enter Month 2, I am curious to see how the stocks move compared to their performance in Month 1. Now that I have my numbers recorded for Month 1, I can start to see the evolution over time and how the monthly snapshots impact my decision-making. I am interested in seeing if monthly performance, and therefore my decisions, uncover any bad habits or reveal incorrect assumptions.

For example, I chose this month to invest in my Growth stocks even though both declined this month - IONQ by 1%, and RGTI by 10%. My rationale was in the expectation that they would recover, and with that growth, I would make a larger gain due to owning more of those stocks. Think of it like buying the stocks at a discount.

Takeaways

As I navigate this process, I want to share key highlights from this journey.

Stock Movement vs Currency Movement: I am keeping a watch on the stock price movements, more than the currency movement. IONQ stock price changed by +3% in USD, but I experienced a value change of -1% due the 4% decline of USD compared to EUR.
Idle Cash: I don't like cash sitting idle, which is why I opted for investing the 52.01 EUR I had sitting in my account.
Emotional Ties: By keeping a watch on my account every day, I noticed I was getting emotionally invested in the fluctuations. Going forward, I want to check my portfolio less frequently, because I am sticking to a monthly touchpoint.
FX Rates: While the FX rates are largely not impacting my project in the long term, I want to keep an eye on them so that I am not missing significant swings. Being aware of the trend over time will keep me in tune with whether the rates average out.
Excitement: As time passes, I am excited to see what comes because the monthly review will allow me to investigate my point-in-time decisions with a retrospective analysis. Hindsight is 20-20 they say, but if I can use this comparison to weed out bad habits or emotional trade decisions, I feel I will develop better investment skills.

Come back next month to see how Formula AI evolves!

Take care!

Kiki <3

Kiki https://kikidreamsbig.com